Market outlook ·
South Africa’s FTTH market: the next phase depends on affordability, take-up and access
South Africa’s fibre-to-the-home market continues to expand, but network reach alone will not determine who benefits. The next phase will depend on converting coverage into active customers, making services affordable and securing access to the networks serving new demand.
Data basis: June 2026 FTTH Quarterly Tracker. These figures describe the June quarter, not an October market count. The outlook is the forecast in that edition, with a March 2026 baseline.
Growth continues, although quarterly additions have eased
The tracker records approximately 3.02 million homes with active FTTH service in June 2026, excluding Fibertime. This represented 114,000 net additions and 3.9% quarter-on-quarter growth. Net additions were below the March quarter’s 135,000, but the active base continued to expand. One slower quarter does not, on its own, establish that the market has reached saturation.[1]
Coverage and physical connections also grew. Including Fibertime, reported homes passed reached 7.81 million and physically connected homes reached 4.18 million. These totals have a different scope from the active-service series above. A home can be passed without a connection, or connected without an active service; the three measures should not be treated as interchangeable.[1]
Prepaid is central to expanding the addressable market
Prepaid products accounted for approximately 77,000 active-home additions in the June quarter, or 67.7% of net additions in the series excluding Fibertime. Postpaid accounted for approximately 37,000. This is evidence that flexible payment models are already an important component of growth, rather than a peripheral product category.[2]
Our assessment is that affordability must be considered in terms of both price and household cash flow. Installation costs, equipment charges, recharge requirements and the consequences of a payment interruption all influence whether a household can sustain a service. Prepaid does not necessarily mean daily or weekly access: Openserve’s website states that only 30-day prepaid recharge vouchers have been available since 1 June 2026.[4]
For providers, the commercial test is sustained usage and revenue after acquisition. Gross connections should therefore be assessed alongside repeat recharges, active days, customer retention and cost to serve.
Coverage overlap raises the importance of local investment decisions
The tracker estimates 6.63 million unique homes passed, compared with 7.81 million aggregate reported passings across all fibre network operators. The difference is approximately 1.18 million duplicate passings, or 15.1% of reported passings using rounded counts. Duplicate passings measure overlapping network coverage; they do not represent additional households.[3]
Overlap can increase consumer choice, but it also means additional construction may compete for households already served. Our view is that rollout decisions need to be made at neighbourhood level, combining unique household coverage, affordability, existing competition, build costs and realistic take-up. Improving utilisation of an existing network can be as important as adding new streets.
The outlook offers substantial growth, but access determines who can participate
Africa Analysis’s June-edition forecast projects active FTTH homes increasing from approximately 2.91 million in March 2026 to 6.09 million in March 2031, an increase of about 3.19 million. This forecast excludes Fibertime and should not be presented as a forecast for the entire market including that operator. It is a modelled outlook, not a guaranteed outcome.[5]
The forecast allocates 38.7% of incremental active homes to closed, direct-to-market networks and 61.3% to open-access networks. The implication for independent internet service providers is that overall market growth is not the same as their accessible sales opportunity. Wholesale agreements, network integrations and access to products serving lower-income households will shape their ability to participate.[5]
Fibertime’s exclusion is a material boundary to this forecast, not evidence that its impact is marginal. Its competitive influence needs to be assessed separately. Fixed wireless also needs to feature in local demand assessments: households choose between available broadband services, rather than evaluating fibre in isolation.
What this means for operators, ISPs and investors
- Fibre network operators: prioritise active-service conversion, reliable operations and deployment areas where demand supports the investment case. Measure unique coverage and utilisation alongside reported homes passed.
- Internet service providers: secure access to relevant networks, develop products suited to household payment patterns and compete on service quality and retention as well as headline price.
- Investors: assess returns using active customers, sustainable revenue and the full cost of acquisition and support. Test slower take-up, price pressure and competing infrastructure in the business case.
South Africa still has room for substantial FTTH expansion. The stronger businesses will be those that translate network availability into affordable, reliable services that households continue to use and pay for. Success will depend on the economics of each market segment and location, supported by disciplined execution.